A new century, China Rubber Market Demand Analysis
1.1 In recent years, rapid growth of China's rubber market demand
Enter the new century, China's rubber market has maintained rapid consumption growth. According to official statistics estimated that by 2001, China's consumption of various types of rubber around the 4.3 million t, up 60% over 2000. Of which natural rubber is about 1.8 million t, about 2.5 million synthetic rubber t, respectively, a 50% increase over 2001 and 67%.
Entered after 2005, China's rubber consumption booming growth pattern remains unchanged, all kinds of rubber consumption in the whole year is expected to be not less than 4.6 million t, compared with growth of 8% over the same period last year. Including natural rubber consumption reached or more than 2.1 million t, synthetic rubber consumption reached or more than 2.5 million t, respectively, up 17% over the previous year and almost the same. In 2005, synthetic rubber consumption growth fell significantly, mainly because prices of the two inverted rubber, synthetic rubber, natural rubber prices much higher price.
From previous years, China has already become the world's rubber consumption (including exports of consumption, the same below) than any other country, estimated in the period ahead, China's top rubber consumer's position will not be shaken.
1.2 rapid growth of China's rubber consumption Factors
Analysis of China's rubber consumption continues to be strong factors, mainly the following aspects:
1. Economy Rapid expansion of the total. From 2001 to 2004, China's gross domestic product (GDP) annual growth rate of more than 7% were maintained; other major economic indicators, industrial production annual growth rate of 10% or more, fixed asset investment growth rate in 20 years % or more. As China is at present stage of heavy industrialization, the traditional process of industrialization has not yet ended. With the rapid expansion of total economic output, all kinds of natural rubber consumption to increase significantly.
2. Automakers have been strong. Since 2001, with the improvement of people's income levels, middle-class expansion of automobile consumption in large quantities to enter the family, thus promoting the consumption of rubber is closely related with the strong growth in vehicle production. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 2004, China produced 5.2 million vehicles, up 14% increase over 2001%. First half of 2005, China's output of 3.04 million vehicles, up 6.5% over last year, continued to show growth situation. If the average monthly output in accordance with existing projections, in 2005 China's auto production will exceed 6 million. In 2005, car ownership in China will be more than 30 million.
3. Road traffic increased dramatically. Expansion of total economic output, the acceleration of urbanization, domestic and foreign trade and prosperity, China's road transport a higher number of requirements; the same time, 10 years continuous highway construction, especially highway construction, for large range provides a basis to improve conditions for road transport. According to statistics, in 2004, China's highway mileage reached 1.856 million km, of which highway mileage 35000km, an increase of more than 80% in 2001. In 2004, China's road freight turnover was 544.5 billion tons-kilometers, up 33.4% in 2001; road passenger turnover was 875.1 billion person-kilometers, up 21.5% over 2001. Significant increase in road traffic, a direct stimulus to the main Rubber products Tire consumption.
4. High growth in exports of rubber products. In recent years, the world's major rubber companies such as Goodyear, Bridgestone, Michelin and other tire companies have entered China, mass production of export products. At the same time, as the world economic growth and industrial structure changes, the demand for rubber products in China is also growing, which built China's sustained high growth in exports of rubber products, solid foundation. According to China Customs statistics, in 2004, China's exports all kinds of tires tire 199,690,000, an increase of 26.3%, 80% increase over 2001. First half of 2005, exports of all kinds of tires tire 109.85 million, up 20% over the same period last year.